用Gumbel极值分布推算气候极值的方法

介绍了用Gumbel极值分布理论推算气候极值的矩法、Thomas曲线公式和最小二乘法。并计算多年一遇的年最高气温、年最大均风速、年最大日降雨量和年最大波高。指出,变率小的要素极值再现期短;变率大的要素极值再现期长;Thomas曲线公式的计算结果较其它两种方法接近历史实况,且计算简便。     

A comparison of three marine ecosystems surrounding the Korean peninsula: Responses to climate change

This study uses a comparative approach to examine responses of marine ecosystems to climatic regime shifts. The three seas surrounding the Korean peninsula, the Japan/East Sea, the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea represent three contiguous but distinct ecosystems. Sampling has been carried out by the National Fisheries Research and Development Institute of South Korea since 1965, using the same methods in all three seas. Sampling was generally synoptic. Amplitude time series of 1st EOF modes for temperature, salinity, zooplankton biomass and concentrations of four major zooplankton taxa were used to determine whether the three marine ecosystems respond in a similar manner to climate variations. Temporal patterns of the variables were strongly similar among the three seas at decadal time scales, but very weakly similar at interannual scales. All three seas responded to a climatic regime shift that occurred in 1989. Temperature, zooplankton biomass and copepod concentrations increased in the late 1980s or early 1990s in all three seas. Concentrations of amphipods, chaetognaths and euphausiids also increased in the Japan/East Sea and the East China Sea, but not the Yellow Sea. The Yellow Sea ecosystem differs strongly from the other two seas, and water exchange between the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea is much weaker than that between the East China Sea and Japan/East Sea. Spatial patterns of zooplankton determined by the EOF analysis were closely related to currents and fronts in each of the three seas.     

航空重力测量数学模型及其测量精度分析

基于数学和分析力学角度分别推导了航空矢量重力测量的数学模型,得到了一致的模型公式;给出了矢量模型的3个分量形式,其中垂直方向的分量就是标量重力测量的数学模型;简要介绍了我国研制成功的航空标量重力测量系统CHAGS的数据处理的过程,分析了标量重力测量中测线交叉点和重复测线的重力异常的精度;根据实测数据计算的结果表明:测线交叉点重力异常不符值的标准差约为5×10-5ms-2左右,重复测线的内符合精度优于5×10-5ms-2,达到了预期的要求。     

中国短期气候变化的一个重要原因——青藏高原地表反射率的变化

通过数值试验对高原地表反射率变化的气候效应进行了敏感性研究,同时对观测的近４０年中国区域气候变化趋势作了对比分析。结果表明,高原主体地表反射率增加是我国短期气候变化的重要控制因子之一,它能造成东亚夏季风和高原夏季风的显著减弱,使夏季我国东部季风区北方变暖,南方变冷,季风降水普遍减少。     

Présence d'une mangrove à Avicennia au Miocène moyen dans la région de Digne (Alpes-de-Haute-Provence,France) : implications stratigraphiques et paléoclimatiques

Avicennia pollen grains have been discovered in marine facies from the Middle Miocene deltaic series of Châteauredon (southeastern France). Based on the local stratigraphy, an age between 15.8 and 16.5 Ma is proposed for these grains. The age and the transgressive context of the Avicennia bearing-levels are in agreement with the maximum extension of the mangrove known in the western Mediterranean during interval N8–NN4 pro parte, in relation with the Langhian highstand. This mangrove occurrence at 42°N latitude during Middle Miocene is a more northern witness of the mangrove sites known in Languedoc and Provence areas. It also implies a lower climatic gradient than today. To cite this article: J.-J. Châteauneuf et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Relations between climatic variability and hydrologic time series from four alluvial basins across the southwestern United States

Hydrologic time series of groundwater levels, streamflow, precipitation, and tree-ring indices from four alluvial basins in the southwestern United States were spectrally analyzed, and then frequency components were reconstructed to isolate variability due to climatic variations on four time scales. Reconstructed components (RCs), from each time series, were compared to climatic indices like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North American Monsoon (NAM), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to reveal that as much as 80% of RC variation can be correlated with climate variations on corresponding time scales. In most cases, the hydrologic RCs lag behind the climate indices by 1–36 months. In all four basins, PDO-like components were the largest contributors to cyclic hydrologic variability. Generally, California time series have more variation associated with PDO and ENSO than the Arizona series, and Arizona basins have more variation associated with NAM. ENSO cycles were present in all four basins but were the largest relative contributors in southeastern Arizona. Groundwater levels show a wide range of climate responses that can be correlated from well to well in the various basins, with climate responses found in unconfined and confined aquifers from pumping centers to mountain fronts.     

Impacts of Holocene climatic variations on alluvial fan activity below snowpatches in subarctic Québec

In the Lake Guillaume-Delisle area of subarctic Québec, storm-generated alluvial fans have been active sporadically throughout the Holocene. In this study, we propose that the persistence of late-lying snowpatches in fan catchments during Holocene cold episodes promoted alluvial fan activity by lowering the precipitation threshold required to trigger a torrential event. This hypothesis was tested by characterizing the depositional processes responsible for alluvial fan formation below snowpatches, and by reconstructing the Holocene alluvial fan activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentary analyses conducted on seven alluvial fans revealed that they were deposited by torrential activity leading to waterlaid, transient, or hyperconcentrated deposition. The chronology of the storm-generated alluvial fans — based on 22 radiocarbon dates — indicates that torrential activity was enhanced during the cooler Late Holocene (i.e., after ca. 3500 cal. yr BP). Snowier winters and cooler summers were beneficial to nival activity, allowing the persistence of larger snowpatches throughout the summer and fall seasons. Rainfall-induced thaw of such snowpatches during rainstorm events is inferred to have contributed to alluvial fan activity by increasing water availability. Three peaks of alluvial activity occurred during the Late Holocene (2950–2750, 1900–1400, and 800–300 cal. yr BP) and are indicative of increased storminess resulting in higher fan activity. Increased fan activity during cooler episodes was concurrent with increased runoff activity in the immediate pronival area. This stresses the importance of nivation below snowpatches and pinpoints the role of nivation in enhancing geomorphological activity during period of cooler and more humid climate in subarctic environments.     

On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?

The authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: (1) solar radiation as a dominant external energy supplier to the Earth, (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere, and, possibly, (3) microbial activities generating and consuming atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere. The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding effects on the Earth’s climate. Quantitative comparison of the scope and extent of the forces of nature and anthropogenic influences on the Earth’s climate is especially important at the time of broad-scale public debates on current global warming. The writers show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible.     

北京54坐标转换至WGS-84坐标的方法

本文首先阐述了北京54坐标转换至WGS-84坐标的意义,介绍了北京54坐标转换至WGS-84坐标的实现过程及其方法.最后通过计算江苏省北京54坐标数据和C级GPS网数据对两种坐标转换方法进行了比较分析,并得出了有益的结论.